What to expect from the rain in Tampa Bay this week
Forecasters are monitoring a patch of weather in the Gulf of Mexico. Here’s what to know. A "plume of tropical moisture" near Florida's west coast is expected to bring rain and humidity to Tampa Bay this week. Forecasters predict up to 6 inches of rain in Tampa Bay through Friday and 8 inches through Sunday, with further rainfall expected in Southwest Florida. This is welcome news for the Tampa Bay area, which has been dealing with record-breaking heat and a drought for weeks. The National Hurricane Center said it was watching for potential tropical development but that it was unlikely. The weather service also warned of possible flooding in South Florida. Despite this, this Atlantic season has yet to see a named storm.
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A messy glob of tropical moisture sitting near Florida’s west coast will bring a mix of rain and humidity to Tampa Bay this week.
On Tuesday, forecasters with the National Hurricane Center said it was watching the rough patch for possible tropical development. But they said that was unlikely and wouldn’t occur until days from now, after the weather had passed over Florida and into the Atlantic Ocean.
“Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is expected across portions of Florida during the next few days,” according to the hurricane center.
Earlier forecasts called for as much as 10 inches of rain in the Tampa Bay area, but on Tuesday the amount of forecasted rainfall declined. The National Weather Service said it anticipates up to 6 inches in Tampa Bay through Friday and 8 inches through Sunday.
Southwest Florida is expected to get even more rain — up to 15 inches in Fort Myers, for instance — and forecasters are warning of possible flooding and rising rivers in that part of the state.
Rainfall in the Tampa Bay area is welcome news. For weeks, the area has sweltered under record-breaking heat and a drought (though typical for this time of year). Should the rainfall remain manageable and spread out, meteorologists say it will be beneficial for Tampa Bay.
So what can Florida — and Tampa Bay — expect from the blob of moisture during its long, leisurely stay? Here’s a breakdown of what to know.
Where is all the rain coming from?
The area of rough weather is being described as a “plume of tropical moisture,” according to Spectrum Bay News 9.
It extends from the Caribbean Sea, spreading toward the eastern Gulf of Mexico and into the Florida peninsula, said Ross Giarratana, a meteorologist from the National Weather Service’s Tampa Bay office.
Think of it as a firehose of soggy air being transported straight from the tropics.
“Any of these storms and showers that develop really will have some high rainfall totals in a short period of time,” Giarratana said.
The hurricane center said in a Tuesday afternoon forecast that the patch of weather has just a 10% chance of tropical development by Thursday and a 20% chance over the next week.
This Atlantic season has yet to see a named storm. It’s the slowest start to hurricane season in more than a decade. The first named storm will be called Alberto.
However, top hurricane academics Tuesday said the sleeping giant will soon awaken.
In their June forecast update, researchers at Colorado State University maintained their initial forecast for an “extremely active” Atlantic hurricane season. The renowned climate school in April predicted 11 hurricanes would spin up this season, the most ever expected in the institution’s nearly three decades of early season forecasting.
It has been two months since their initial prediction, and university experts are sticking with that number. Record-warm Atlantic temperatures and an arriving La Niña weather pattern are to blame, researchers said.
The forecast has changed. Will there be flooding?
While forecasters anticipated rainfall amounts up to 10 inches in Tampa Bay earlier this week, Kyle Hanson, a meteorologist for Spectrum Bay News 9, said the moisture has shifted further south and likely won’t cause as much rain here.
Hanson said rainfall is likely to come in patches for the next few days.
“It’ll start raining for a half an hour, then it’ll stop, and that can happen again at some point in the day,” Hanson said. “Then it’ll just be kind of off and on like that through about Friday.”
A flood advisory was issued for a portion of southwest Pasco and northern Pinellas counties Tuesday afternoon, when heavy rains were expected to cause urban and small stream flooding. Additionally, portions of South Florida are under a flood watch through Wednesday night.
The weather service’s Southeast River Forecast Center is expecting heavy rains in Central and South Florida could produce minor flooding, and even flash floods in some areas.
The Manatee River at State Road 64 is expected to reach 10.5 feet on Thursday. Minor flooding begins at 11 feet. The Myakka River at Myakka State Park will, at 6.9 feet, be a hair away from minor flooding, which occurs at 7 feet.
Horse Creek near Arcadia was expected to reach a minor flooding stage at 13.8 feet.
Giarratana said the weather service is watching for areas that receive multiple rounds of rain, especially urban areas, which are most vulnerable to flooding.
Areas with concrete and buildings rely more heavily on drainage systems as opposed to green areas that can naturally soak up water.
Should flooding occur, you should not walk or drive through waters. It takes just six inches of moving water to knock a person off their feet, the weather service said.
Flood water also may be deeper than it appears, and can hide sharp objects, electrical wires and chemicals, the weather service said. If you find yourself caught in flood waters, get to the highest ground possible and call 911.
Will the rain end our drought?
The rain the area is experiencing this week is not uncommon for this time of year, Hanson from Bay News 9 said.
“We’re due for this,” Hanson said. “We haven’t had an event like this yet this year.”
The rainfall expected in south Florida is less likely, Hanson said. However, because of the area’s proximity to the tropics, it can happen every so often.
“It’s certainly an event, and certainly something that does not happen often — you could say this is like a once a year type of event,” Hanson said.
While the rainfall amounts are high, they’ll be over multiple days in a widespread area, which should lower the chance of flooding.
The showers won’t be like last year, when 25 inches of rain fell on Fort Lauderdale in a single day, flooding streets and stalling cars. That kind of rainfall is more like a once every 1,000 years occurrence.
Because of the drought, the ground should be able to soak up the water. When the ground is more saturated, it becomes more difficult for the ground to slurp up rain water.
The United States drought monitor shows portions of Tampa Bay are running from abnormally dry to a moderate drought. Areas to the south, like Manatee and Sarasota counties, are in a severe drought.
According to the Southwest Water Management District, from Jan. 1 to June 9, the district-wide rainfall deficit was about 10 inches.
“The area’s current low water levels will certainly benefit from the forecasted rain this week,” the water management district said in an email to the Tampa Bay Times.
Hanson said the rain may not entirely pull the area out of a drought, but he expects more rain in the near future. The rainy season may settle in after this week’s storms pass through.
“From here on out,” Hanson said, “we’re going to see more wet weather than we have been seeing previously.”
Konular: Environment-ESG